Scientific Letter
Forecasting COVID-19 Infection Trends and New Hospital Admissions in Spain due to SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern Omicron
Estimación de las tendencias de infección por COVID-19 y de nuevos ingresos hospitalarios en España debido a la variante Ómicron del SARS-CoV-2
Joan B. Sorianoa,b,c,
, Alberto Giovanni Gerlid, Stefano Centannie,f, Julio Ancocheaa,b,c
Corresponding author
a Servicio de Neumología, Hospital Universitario La Princesa, Madrid, Spain
b Facultad de Medicina, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Madrid, Spain
c Centro de Investigación en Red de Enfermedades Respiratorias (CIBERES), Instituto de Salud Carlos III (ISCIII), Madrid, Spain
d Department of Health Sciences, Università degli Studi di Milano, Milan, Italy
e Respiratory Unit, ASST Santi Paolo e Carlo, Milan, Italy
f Department of Health Sciences, Università degli Studi di Milano, Milan, Italy
Read
6734
Timeswas read the article
1221
Total PDF
5513
Total HTML
Share statistics
array:22 [ "pii" => "S0300289622000084" "issn" => "03002896" "doi" => "10.1016/j.arbres.2022.01.001" "estado" => "S300" "fechaPublicacion" => "2022-02-01" "aid" => "2981" "copyright" => "SEPAR" "copyrightAnyo" => "2022" "documento" => "simple-article" "crossmark" => 1 "subdocumento" => "crp" "cita" => "Arch Bronconeumol. 2022;58:200-2" "abierto" => array:3 [ "ES" => true "ES2" => true "LATM" => true ] "gratuito" => true "lecturas" => array:1 [ "total" => 0 ] "itemAnterior" => array:18 [ "pii" => "S0300289621003288" "issn" => "03002896" "doi" => "10.1016/j.arbres.2021.09.010" "estado" => "S300" "fechaPublicacion" => "2022-02-01" "aid" => "2922" "copyright" => "SEPAR" "documento" => "simple-article" "crossmark" => 1 "subdocumento" => "crp" "cita" => "Arch Bronconeumol. 2022;58:197-9" "abierto" => array:3 [ "ES" => true "ES2" => true "LATM" => true ] "gratuito" => true "lecturas" => array:1 [ "total" => 0 ] "en" => array:13 [ "idiomaDefecto" => true "cabecera" => "<span class="elsevierStyleTextfn">Scientific Letter</span>" "titulo" => "COVID-19 Prevention Policies Reduce Pediatric Hospital Mortality Due to Community-acquired Pneumonia" "tienePdf" => "en" "tieneTextoCompleto" => "en" "tieneResumen" => "en" "paginas" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "paginaInicial" => "197" "paginaFinal" => "199" ] ] "contieneResumen" => array:1 [ "en" => true ] "contieneTextoCompleto" => array:1 [ "en" => true ] "contienePdf" => array:1 [ "en" => true ] "resumenGrafico" => array:2 [ "original" => 1 "multimedia" => array:5 [ "identificador" => "fig0010" "tipo" => "MULTIMEDIAFIGURA" "mostrarFloat" => false "mostrarDisplay" => true "figura" => array:1 [ 0 => array:4 [ "imagen" => "fx1.jpeg" "Alto" => 687 "Ancho" => 1333 "Tamanyo" => 72873 ] ] ] ] "autores" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "autoresLista" => "Carolina F. Dias, Edgar E. Sarria, Camila Scheffel, Laura B. Delatorre, Alexander Sapiro, Marilisa Baldissera, Sabrina Chiapinotto, Helena T. Mocelin, Gilberto B. Fischer, Rita Mattiello" "autores" => array:10 [ 0 => array:2 [ "nombre" => "Carolina F." "apellidos" => "Dias" ] 1 => array:2 [ "nombre" => "Edgar E." "apellidos" => "Sarria" ] 2 => array:2 [ "nombre" => "Camila" "apellidos" => "Scheffel" ] 3 => array:2 [ "nombre" => "Laura B." "apellidos" => "Delatorre" ] 4 => array:2 [ "nombre" => "Alexander" "apellidos" => "Sapiro" ] 5 => array:2 [ "nombre" => "Marilisa" "apellidos" => "Baldissera" ] 6 => array:2 [ "nombre" => "Sabrina" "apellidos" => "Chiapinotto" ] 7 => array:2 [ "nombre" => "Helena T." "apellidos" => "Mocelin" ] 8 => array:2 [ "nombre" => "Gilberto B." "apellidos" => "Fischer" ] 9 => array:2 [ "nombre" => "Rita" "apellidos" => "Mattiello" ] ] ] ] "resumen" => array:1 [ 0 => array:3 [ "titulo" => "Graphical abstract" "clase" => "graphical" "resumen" => "<span id="abst0005" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><p id="spar0005" class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall"><elsevierMultimedia ident="fig0010"></elsevierMultimedia></p></span>" ] ] ] "idiomaDefecto" => "en" "EPUB" => "https://multimedia.elsevier.es/PublicationsMultimediaV1/item/epub/S0300289621003288?idApp=UINPBA00003Z" "url" => "/03002896/0000005800000002/v4_202209200636/S0300289621003288/v4_202209200636/en/main.assets" ] "en" => array:15 [ "idiomaDefecto" => true "cabecera" => "<span class="elsevierStyleTextfn">Scientific Letter</span>" "titulo" => "Forecasting COVID-19 Infection Trends and New Hospital Admissions in Spain due to SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern Omicron" "tieneTextoCompleto" => true "saludo" => "To the Director:" "paginas" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "paginaInicial" => "200" "paginaFinal" => "202" ] ] "autores" => array:1 [ 0 => array:4 [ "autoresLista" => "Joan B. Soriano, Alberto Giovanni Gerli, Stefano Centanni, Julio Ancochea" "autores" => array:4 [ 0 => array:4 [ "nombre" => "Joan B." "apellidos" => "Soriano" "email" => array:1 [ 0 => "jbsoriano2@gmail.com" ] "referencia" => array:4 [ 0 => array:2 [ "etiqueta" => "<span class="elsevierStyleSup">a</span>" "identificador" => "aff0005" ] 1 => array:2 [ "etiqueta" => "<span class="elsevierStyleSup">b</span>" "identificador" => "aff0010" ] 2 => array:2 [ "etiqueta" => "<span class="elsevierStyleSup">c</span>" "identificador" => "aff0015" ] 3 => array:2 [ "etiqueta" => "<span class="elsevierStyleSup">*</span>" "identificador" => "cor0005" ] ] ] 1 => array:3 [ "nombre" => "Alberto Giovanni" "apellidos" => "Gerli" "referencia" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "etiqueta" => "<span class="elsevierStyleSup">d</span>" "identificador" => "aff0020" ] ] ] 2 => array:3 [ "nombre" => "Stefano" "apellidos" => "Centanni" "referencia" => array:2 [ 0 => array:2 [ "etiqueta" => "<span class="elsevierStyleSup">e</span>" "identificador" => "aff0025" ] 1 => array:2 [ "etiqueta" => "<span class="elsevierStyleSup">f</span>" "identificador" => "aff0030" ] ] ] 3 => array:3 [ "nombre" => "Julio" "apellidos" => "Ancochea" "referencia" => array:3 [ 0 => array:2 [ "etiqueta" => "<span class="elsevierStyleSup">a</span>" "identificador" => "aff0005" ] 1 => array:2 [ "etiqueta" => "<span class="elsevierStyleSup">b</span>" "identificador" => "aff0010" ] 2 => array:2 [ "etiqueta" => "<span class="elsevierStyleSup">c</span>" "identificador" => "aff0015" ] ] ] ] "afiliaciones" => array:6 [ 0 => array:3 [ "entidad" => "Servicio de Neumología, Hospital Universitario La Princesa, Madrid, Spain" "etiqueta" => "a" "identificador" => "aff0005" ] 1 => array:3 [ "entidad" => "Facultad de Medicina, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Madrid, Spain" "etiqueta" => "b" "identificador" => "aff0010" ] 2 => array:3 [ "entidad" => "Centro de Investigación en Red de Enfermedades Respiratorias (CIBERES), Instituto de Salud Carlos III (ISCIII), Madrid, Spain" "etiqueta" => "c" "identificador" => "aff0015" ] 3 => array:3 [ "entidad" => "Department of Health Sciences, Università degli Studi di Milano, Milan, Italy" "etiqueta" => "d" "identificador" => "aff0020" ] 4 => array:3 [ "entidad" => "Respiratory Unit, ASST Santi Paolo e Carlo, Milan, Italy" "etiqueta" => "e" "identificador" => "aff0025" ] 5 => array:3 [ "entidad" => "Department of Health Sciences, Università degli Studi di Milano, Milan, Italy" "etiqueta" => "f" "identificador" => "aff0030" ] ] "correspondencia" => array:1 [ 0 => array:3 [ "identificador" => "cor0005" "etiqueta" => "⁎" "correspondencia" => "Corresponding author." ] ] ] ] "titulosAlternativos" => array:1 [ "es" => array:1 [ "titulo" => "Estimación de las tendencias de infección por COVID-19 y de nuevos ingresos hospitalarios en España debido a la variante Ómicron del SARS-CoV-2" ] ] "resumenGrafico" => array:2 [ "original" => 0 "multimedia" => array:7 [ "identificador" => "fig0005" "etiqueta" => "Fig. 1" "tipo" => "MULTIMEDIAFIGURA" "mostrarFloat" => true "mostrarDisplay" => false "figura" => array:1 [ 0 => array:4 [ "imagen" => "gr1.jpeg" "Alto" => 1405 "Ancho" => 2500 "Tamanyo" => 396485 ] ] "descripcion" => array:1 [ "en" => "<p id="spar0005" class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">Genomic epidemiology of novel coronavirus – global subsampling.</p> <p id="spar0010" class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">Footnote: Note in red colour the recent surge of VOC Omicron.</p>" ] ] ] "textoCompleto" => "<span class="elsevierStyleSections"><p id="par0005" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Spain has been among the hardest hit countries by COVID-19 worldwide, particularly during the first wave and the ongoing sixth wave.<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0105"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">1</span></a> There have been several successful attempts to forecast trends of incidence and mortality of COVID-19, most based upon knowledge on viral dynamics from previous pandemics, recent COVID-19 geographical information of diverse granularity, and newly discovered viral characteristics.<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRefs" href="#bib0110"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">2–4</span></a> However, SARS-CoV-2 inherent poor quality RNAm copy-editing gene replication makes it prone to mutate and spontaneously create new variants of concern (VoC) (<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#fig0005">Fig. 1</a>),<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0125"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">5</span></a> that adapt to any hostile environment, produce new outbreaks, and modify existing epidemiological projections.<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0130"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">6</span></a></p><elsevierMultimedia ident="fig0005"></elsevierMultimedia><p id="par0010" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">On November 26, 2021, WHO designated the variant B.1.1.529 as a new VoC, named Omicron, originally identified in South Africa,<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0135"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">7</span></a> on the evidence that mutations in Omicron may have an impact on how it spreads, resistance to vaccination, or the severity of illness it causes.<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0140"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">8</span></a> In particular, in South Africa up to December 2, 2021 it was observed a doubling time for the first 3 days after the wave threshold of ten cases per 100<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>000 population.<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRefs" href="#bib0145"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">9,10</span></a> In Denmark, a European leader in sequencing SARS-CoV-2 VoC, where testing of all positive PCR tests is commonplace, cases of Omicron were reported to double every second day,<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0155"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">11</span></a> despite almost 75% of those infected by Omicron had received full (two doses of) COVID-19 vaccination already.</p><p id="par0015" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">We used our previous modelling algorithms,<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRefs" href="#bib0160"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">12–14</span></a> to forecast the spread of Omicron in Spain, and report trends in daily cases with a 7-day moving average and of new hospitalisations. We followed EQUATOR's TRIPOD guidance for multivariable prediction models.<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0175"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">15</span></a> By applying firstly a third-degree polynomial curve in existing epidemiological trends on the spread of Omicron in Spain, starting from the first 17 days of the Omicron outbreak (from December 12, 2021), and secondly a Gaussian curve following a parametric growth,<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRefs" href="#bib0160"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">12–14</span></a> we were able to model new infections of COVID-19 in Spain. Overall, the worse scenario is forecasting up to 431,348 COVID-19 daily infections on January, 24, 2022 while the “best” scenario is 247,620 (<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#fig0010">Fig. 2</a>).</p><elsevierMultimedia ident="fig0010"></elsevierMultimedia><p id="par0020" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Then we modelled these trends for new COVID-19 cases and hospital admissions using a new Gaussian curve to estimate a downward trend after a peak,<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0180"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">16</span></a> and we obtained the expected curve of new COVID-19 infections in Spain, and with a 5-day lag time, new hospital admissions. It will likely produce crowding in hospitals, as new hospital admissions per day might peak on January 30, 2022, with a range in between 4210 (“best” scenario) and 7333 (worse scenario). Both epidemiological indicators will surpass previous rates observed in the previous five waves, unless both individual and group interventions are taking place. Beyond the futility of debating on an alleged lower severity of Omicron's acute COVID-19 clinical expression, any further consequences on its sequelae and long COVID will require close monitoring.<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0185"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">17</span></a></p><p id="par0025" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">In probability theory, the conditional expectation of any warning system for an eventual surge of an infectious outbreak, as could happen with Omicron substituting other SAR-CoV-2 VoC, modifies (reduces) the eventual magnitude of the event itself.<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0190"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">18</span></a> Given preliminary evidence from South Africa, our forecast anticipates a large COVID-19 increase in Spain despite the high levels of vaccination.<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0195"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">19</span></a> Therefore, this warning is calling for further reinforcing of universal hygiene interventions (indoor ventilation, social distance, and face masks), and anticipating the need of new lockdowns,<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0155"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">11</span></a> the latter being extremely detrimental to the economy.</p><p id="par0030" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">All viruses change in time and space by natural or artificial Darwin's selection, and survival of the fittest,<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0200"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">20</span></a> due either to high levels of herd immunity or low vaccination coverage. The toll associated with Omicron underlines WHO's COVID-19 message that “No one will be safe, until the entire World is safe (ergo vaccinated)”.</p><span id="sec0005" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="sect0005">Funding</span><p id="par0035" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">None declared.</p></span></span>" "textoCompletoSecciones" => array:1 [ "secciones" => array:2 [ 0 => array:2 [ "identificador" => "sec0005" "titulo" => "Funding" ] 1 => array:1 [ "titulo" => "References" ] ] ] "pdfFichero" => "main.pdf" "tienePdf" => true "multimedia" => array:2 [ 0 => array:7 [ "identificador" => "fig0005" "etiqueta" => "Fig. 1" "tipo" => "MULTIMEDIAFIGURA" "mostrarFloat" => true "mostrarDisplay" => false "figura" => array:1 [ 0 => array:4 [ "imagen" => "gr1.jpeg" "Alto" => 1405 "Ancho" => 2500 "Tamanyo" => 396485 ] ] "descripcion" => array:1 [ "en" => "<p id="spar0005" class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">Genomic epidemiology of novel coronavirus – global subsampling.</p> <p id="spar0010" class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">Footnote: Note in red colour the recent surge of VOC Omicron.</p>" ] ] 1 => array:7 [ "identificador" => "fig0010" "etiqueta" => "Fig. 2" "tipo" => "MULTIMEDIAFIGURA" "mostrarFloat" => true "mostrarDisplay" => false "figura" => array:1 [ 0 => array:4 [ "imagen" => "gr2.jpeg" "Alto" => 1432 "Ancho" => 2500 "Tamanyo" => 237922 ] ] "descripcion" => array:1 [ "en" => "<p id="spar0015" class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">Trends in COVID-19 daily new infections with a seven-day moving average and of new hospital admissions in Spain, observed and expected up to February 15, 2022.</p>" ] ] ] "bibliografia" => array:2 [ "titulo" => "References" "seccion" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "identificador" => "bibs0015" "bibliografiaReferencia" => array:20 [ 0 => array:3 [ "identificador" => "bib0105" "etiqueta" => "1" "referencia" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "contribucion" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "titulo" => "WHO Coronavirus (COVID-19) Dashboard" "autores" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "etal" => false "autores" => array:1 [ 0 => "World Health Organization" ] ] ] ] ] "host" => array:1 [ 0 => array:1 [ "Libro" => array:1 [ "fecha" => "2021" ] ] ] ] ] ] 1 => array:3 [ "identificador" => "bib0110" "etiqueta" => "2" "referencia" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "contribucion" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "titulo" => "Modelling the COVID-19 epidemic and implementation of population-wide interventions in Italy" "autores" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "etal" => true "autores" => array:6 [ 0 => "G. Giordano" 1 => "F. Blanchini" 2 => "R. Bruno" 3 => "P. Colaneri" 4 => "A. Di Filippo" 5 => "A. Di Matteo" ] ] ] ] ] "host" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "doi" => "10.1038/s41591-020-0883-7" "Revista" => array:6 [ "tituloSerie" => "Nat Med" "fecha" => "2020" "volumen" => "26" "paginaInicial" => "855" "paginaFinal" => "860" "link" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "url" => "https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32322102" "web" => "Medline" ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] 2 => array:3 [ "identificador" => "bib0115" "etiqueta" => "3" "referencia" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "contribucion" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "titulo" => "Forecasting efforts from prior epidemics and COVID-19 predictions" "autores" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "etal" => false "autores" => array:3 [ 0 => "P. Nadella" 1 => "A. Swaminathan" 2 => "S.V. Subramanian" ] ] ] ] ] "host" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "doi" => "10.1007/s10654-020-00661-0" "Revista" => array:6 [ "tituloSerie" => "Eur J Epidemiol" "fecha" => "2020" "volumen" => "35" "paginaInicial" => "727" "paginaFinal" => "729" "link" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "url" => "https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32676971" "web" => "Medline" ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] 3 => array:3 [ "identificador" => "bib0120" "etiqueta" => "4" "referencia" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "contribucion" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "titulo" => "[A proposed epidemiologic risk threshold for SARS-CoV-2 for assisting healthcare decision-making]" "autores" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "etal" => false "autores" => array:4 [ 0 => "M.I. Santiago Pérez" 1 => "E. López-Vizcaíno" 2 => "A. Ruano-Ravina" 3 => "M. Pérez-Ríos" ] ] ] ] ] "host" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "doi" => "10.1016/j.arbres.2020.12.036" "Revista" => array:6 [ "tituloSerie" => "Arch Bronconeumol" "fecha" => "2021" "volumen" => "57" "paginaInicial" => "21" "paginaFinal" => "27" "link" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "url" => "https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34629639" "web" => "Medline" ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] 4 => array:3 [ "identificador" => "bib0125" "etiqueta" => "5" "referencia" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "contribucion" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "titulo" => "Genomic epidemiology of novel coronavirus – global subsampling" "autores" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "etal" => false "autores" => array:1 [ 0 => "Nextstrain" ] ] ] ] ] "host" => array:1 [ 0 => array:1 [ "Libro" => array:1 [ "fecha" => "2021" ] ] ] ] ] ] 5 => array:3 [ "identificador" => "bib0130" "etiqueta" => "6" "referencia" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "contribucion" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "titulo" => "Monitoring the COVID-19 epidemic in the context of widespread local transmission" "autores" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "etal" => true "autores" => array:6 [ 0 => "A.L. García-Basteiro" 1 => "C. Chaccour" 2 => "C. Guinovart" 3 => "A. Llupià" 4 => "J. Brew" 5 => "A. Trilla" ] ] ] ] ] "host" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "doi" => "10.1016/S2213-2600(20)30162-4. Epub 2020 Apr 2. PMID: 32247325" "Revista" => array:6 [ "tituloSerie" => "Lancet Respir Med" "fecha" => "2020" "volumen" => "8" "paginaInicial" => "440" "paginaFinal" => "442" "link" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "url" => "https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32247325" "web" => "Medline" ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] 6 => array:3 [ "identificador" => "bib0135" "etiqueta" => "7" "referencia" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "contribucion" => array:1 [ 0 => array:1 [ "titulo" => "Update on Omicron" ] ] "host" => array:1 [ 0 => array:1 [ "Libro" => array:2 [ "fecha" => "2021" "editorial" => "WHO" ] ] ] ] ] ] 7 => array:3 [ "identificador" => "bib0140" "etiqueta" => "8" "referencia" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "contribucion" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "titulo" => "How bad is Omicron? What scientists know so far" "autores" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "etal" => false "autores" => array:2 [ 0 => "E. Callaway" 1 => "H. Ledford" ] ] ] ] ] "host" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "doi" => "10.1038/d41586-021-03614-z" "Revista" => array:6 [ "tituloSerie" => "Nature" "fecha" => "2021" "volumen" => "600" "paginaInicial" => "197" "paginaFinal" => "199" "link" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "url" => "https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34857948" "web" => "Medline" ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] 8 => array:3 [ "identificador" => "bib0145" "etiqueta" => "9" "referencia" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "contribucion" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "titulo" => "Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant: a new chapter in the COVID-19 pandemic" "autores" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "etal" => false "autores" => array:2 [ 0 => "S.S.A. Karim" 1 => "Q.A. Karim" ] ] ] ] ] "host" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "doi" => "10.1016/S0140-6736(21)02758-6" "Revista" => array:3 [ "tituloSerie" => "Lancet" "fecha" => "2021" "link" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "url" => "https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26313074" "web" => "Medline" ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] 9 => array:3 [ "identificador" => "bib0150" "etiqueta" => "10" "referencia" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "contribucion" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "titulo" => "COVID-19" "autores" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "etal" => false "autores" => array:1 [ 0 => "Department of Health, Government of South Africa" ] ] ] ] ] "host" => array:1 [ 0 => array:1 [ "Libro" => array:1 [ "fecha" => "2021" ] ] ] ] ] ] 10 => array:3 [ "identificador" => "bib0155" "etiqueta" => "11" "referencia" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "contribucion" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "titulo" => "Denmark's Omicron surge is a warning to the rest of world" "autores" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "etal" => false "autores" => array:1 [ 0 => "N. Rolander" ] ] ] ] ] "host" => array:1 [ 0 => array:1 [ "Libro" => array:2 [ "fecha" => "2021" "editorial" => "Bloomberg" ] ] ] ] ] ] 11 => array:3 [ "identificador" => "bib0160" "etiqueta" => "12" "referencia" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "contribucion" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "titulo" => "COVID-19 mortality rates in the European Union Switzerland, and the UK: effect of timeliness, lockdown rigidity, and population density" "autores" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "etal" => true "autores" => array:6 [ 0 => "A.G. Gerli" 1 => "S. Centanni" 2 => "M.R. Miozzo" 3 => "J.C. Virchow" 4 => "G. Sotgiu" 5 => "G.W. Canonica" ] ] ] ] ] "host" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "doi" => "10.23736/S0026-4806.20.06702-6" "Revista" => array:6 [ "tituloSerie" => "Minerva Med" "fecha" => "2020" "volumen" => "111" "paginaInicial" => "308" "paginaFinal" => "314" "link" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "url" => "https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32491297" "web" => "Medline" ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] 12 => array:3 [ "identificador" => "bib0165" "etiqueta" => "13" "referencia" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "contribucion" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "titulo" => "Predictive models for COVID-19-related deaths and infections" "autores" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "etal" => false "autores" => array:4 [ 0 => "A.G. Gerli" 1 => "S. Centanni" 2 => "M. Miozzo" 3 => "G. Sotgiu" ] ] ] ] ] "host" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "doi" => "10.5588/ijtld.20.0196" "Revista" => array:6 [ "tituloSerie" => "Int J Tuberc Lung Dis" "fecha" => "2020" "volumen" => "24" "paginaInicial" => "647" "paginaFinal" => "650" "link" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "url" => "https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32552999" "web" => "Medline" ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] 13 => array:3 [ "identificador" => "bib0170" "etiqueta" => "14" "referencia" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "contribucion" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "titulo" => "Forecasting COVID-19 infection trends in the EU-27 countries, the UK and Switzerland due to SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern Omicron" "autores" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "etal" => false "autores" => array:4 [ 0 => "A.G. Gerli" 1 => "S. Centanni" 2 => "J.B. Soriano" 3 => "J. Ancochea" ] ] ] ] ] "host" => array:1 [ 0 => array:1 [ "Revista" => array:2 [ "tituloSerie" => "medRxiv" "fecha" => "2021" ] ] ] ] ] ] 14 => array:3 [ "identificador" => "bib0175" "etiqueta" => "15" "referencia" => array:1 [ 0 => array:1 [ "referenciaCompleta" => "Transparent reporting of a multivariable prediction model for individual prognosis or diagnosis (TRIPOD): the TRIPOD statement. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.equator-network.org/reporting-guidelines/tripod-statement/">https://www.equator-network.org/reporting-guidelines/tripod-statement/</a> [accessed 14.12.21]" ] ] ] 15 => array:3 [ "identificador" => "bib0180" "etiqueta" => "16" "referencia" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "contribucion" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "titulo" => "COVID-19 mortality rate prediction for India using statistical neural networks and Gaussian process regression model" "autores" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "etal" => false "autores" => array:2 [ 0 => "S. Dhamodharavadhani" 1 => "R. Rathipriya" ] ] ] ] ] "host" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "doi" => "10.4314/ahs.v21i1.26" "Revista" => array:6 [ "tituloSerie" => "Afr Health Sci" "fecha" => "2021" "volumen" => "21" "paginaInicial" => "194" "paginaFinal" => "206" "link" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "url" => "https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34394298" "web" => "Medline" ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] 16 => array:3 [ "identificador" => "bib0185" "etiqueta" => "17" "referencia" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "contribucion" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "titulo" => "[Evaluation of respiratory sequelae in patients with COVID-19, where we are and where we are going. CIBERESUCICOVID and RECOVID studies to compare patients admitted to ICU vs conventional ward]" "autores" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "etal" => true "autores" => array:6 [ 0 => "R. Menéndez" 1 => "A. Ceccato" 2 => "I. Martín-Loeches" 3 => "A. Motos" 4 => "F. Barbé" 5 => "G. Peces-Barba" ] ] ] ] ] "host" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "doi" => "10.1016/j.arbres.2021.09.013" "Revista" => array:2 [ "tituloSerie" => "Arch Bronconeumol" "fecha" => "2021" ] ] ] ] ] ] 17 => array:3 [ "identificador" => "bib0190" "etiqueta" => "18" "referencia" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "contribucion" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "titulo" => "Section 34. Conditional expectation" "autores" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "etal" => false "autores" => array:1 [ 0 => "P. Billingsley" ] ] ] ] ] "host" => array:1 [ 0 => array:1 [ "Libro" => array:6 [ "isbn" => "0471007102" "edicion" => "3rd ed." "titulo" => "Probability and measure" "fecha" => "1995" "paginaInicial" => "445" "editorial" => "John Wiley & Sons" ] ] ] ] ] ] 18 => array:3 [ "identificador" => "bib0195" "etiqueta" => "19" "referencia" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "contribucion" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "titulo" => "Omicron: a failure to act with a global focus will continue the proliferation of new variants of COVID-19" "autores" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "etal" => false "autores" => array:1 [ 0 => "M. Rae" ] ] ] ] ] "host" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "doi" => "10.1136/bmj.n3095" "Revista" => array:5 [ "tituloSerie" => "BMJ" "fecha" => "2021" "volumen" => "375" "paginaInicial" => "n3095" "link" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "url" => "https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34916212" "web" => "Medline" ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] 19 => array:3 [ "identificador" => "bib0200" "etiqueta" => "20" "referencia" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "contribucion" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "titulo" => "Mechanisms of SARS-CoV-2 evolution revealing vaccine-resistant mutations in Europe and America" "autores" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "etal" => false "autores" => array:3 [ 0 => "R. Wang" 1 => "J. Chen" 2 => "G.W. Wei" ] ] ] ] ] "host" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "doi" => "10.1021/acs.jpclett.1c03380" "Revista" => array:5 [ "tituloSerie" => "J Phys Chem Lett" "fecha" => "2021" "volumen" => "7" "paginaInicial" => "11850" "paginaFinal" => "11857" ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] "idiomaDefecto" => "en" "url" => "/03002896/0000005800000002/v4_202209200636/S0300289622000084/v4_202209200636/en/main.assets" "Apartado" => array:4 [ "identificador" => "93642" "tipo" => "SECCION" "en" => array:2 [ "titulo" => "Scientific Letters/Cartas científicas" "idiomaDefecto" => true ] "idiomaDefecto" => "en" ] "PDF" => "https://static.elsevier.es/multimedia/03002896/0000005800000002/v4_202209200636/S0300289622000084/v4_202209200636/en/main.pdf?idApp=UINPBA00003Z&text.app=https://archbronconeumol.org/" "EPUB" => "https://multimedia.elsevier.es/PublicationsMultimediaV1/item/epub/S0300289622000084?idApp=UINPBA00003Z" ]
| Year/Month | Html | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 November | 7 | 2 | 9 |
| 2024 October | 71 | 21 | 92 |
| 2024 September | 102 | 23 | 125 |
| 2024 August | 123 | 44 | 167 |
| 2024 July | 105 | 15 | 120 |
| 2024 June | 131 | 22 | 153 |
| 2024 May | 116 | 28 | 144 |
| 2024 April | 66 | 28 | 94 |
| 2024 March | 100 | 10 | 110 |
| 2024 February | 100 | 28 | 128 |
| 2024 January | 104 | 34 | 138 |
| 2023 December | 163 | 29 | 192 |
| 2023 November | 177 | 18 | 195 |
| 2023 October | 151 | 30 | 181 |
| 2023 September | 134 | 29 | 163 |
| 2023 August | 116 | 33 | 149 |
| 2023 July | 121 | 27 | 148 |
| 2023 June | 123 | 14 | 137 |
| 2023 May | 120 | 19 | 139 |
| 2023 April | 100 | 21 | 121 |
| 2023 March | 158 | 22 | 180 |
| 2023 February | 129 | 33 | 162 |
| 2023 January | 120 | 46 | 166 |
| 2022 December | 165 | 36 | 201 |
| 2022 November | 192 | 37 | 229 |
| 2022 October | 188 | 43 | 231 |
| 2022 September | 141 | 50 | 191 |
| 2022 August | 193 | 53 | 246 |
| 2022 July | 180 | 56 | 236 |
| 2022 June | 236 | 59 | 295 |
| 2022 May | 218 | 47 | 265 |
| 2022 April | 295 | 78 | 373 |
| 2022 March | 349 | 78 | 427 |
| 2022 February | 329 | 72 | 401 |
| 2022 January | 390 | 36 | 426 |
Show all
