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        "titulo" => "A model to predict death after lung cancer resection&#58; applicability to individual cases"
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        "resumen" => "<span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Objetivo</span><p id="spar0005" class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">Evaluar la fiabilidad de un modelo de regresi&#243;n log&#237;stica para predecir el riesgo individual de muerte por resecci&#243;n de c&#225;ncer pulmonar &#40;CP&#41;</p> <span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">M&#233;todo</span><p id="spar0010" class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">Estudio de 515 casos consecutivos sometidos a resecci&#243;n pulmonar anat&#243;mica &#40;lobectom&#237;a o neumonectom&#237;a&#41; por CP entre enero de 1994 y diciembre de 2001&#46; La variable dependiente fue la mortalidad hospitalaria o extrahospitalaria en los 30 d&#237;as siguientes a la intervenci&#243;n&#59; las variables independientes continuas&#58; la edad&#44; el &#237;ndice de masa corporal y el volumen espiratorio forzado en el primer segundo&#44; en porcentaje del te&#243;rico &#40;FEV1ppo&#41;&#44; y las variables independientes binarias&#58; cardiopat&#237;a isqu&#233;mica&#44; diabetes mellitus&#44; arritmia preoperatoria&#44; quimioterapia de inducci&#243;n&#44; tipo de resecci&#243;n realizada &#40;lobectom&#237;a o neumonectom&#237;a&#41;&#44; resecci&#243;n de pared tor&#225;cica&#44; extensi&#243;n tumoral &#40;tumor localizado o extendido&#41; y transfusi&#243;n sangu&#237;nea perioperatoria&#46; Todas las variables han sido recogidas de forma prospectiva&#46; Se ha realizado un an&#225;lisis univariante utilizando tablas de contingencia para las variables binarias y ANOVA para las continuas&#59; posteriormente&#44; se ha efectuado un an&#225;lisis de regresi&#243;n log&#237;stica por pasos hacia atr&#225;s y se ha calculado la probabilidad de muerte para cada caso individual&#46; Con este valor se ha construido una curva ROC utilizando como variable de estado la aparici&#243;n de muerte operatoria</p> <span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Resultados</span><p id="spar0015" class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">En el an&#225;lisis multivariante&#44; las siguientes variables se han encontrado relacionadas de forma independiente con la mortalidad&#58; edad &#40;p &#60; 0&#44;001&#59; odds ratio &#91;OR&#93;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#61;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>1&#44;11&#41;&#44; extensi&#243;n tumoral &#40;p<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#61;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>0&#44;002&#59; OR<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#61;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>3&#44;47&#41; y transfusi&#243;n perioperatoria &#40;p<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#61;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>0&#44;004&#59; OR<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#61;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>3&#44;87&#41;&#46; El &#225;rea bajo la curva ROC es de 0&#44;77&#44; pero esto es debido a una especificidad elevada&#44; ya que ning&#250;n caso de complicaci&#243;n pudo ser predicho</p> <span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Conclusion</span><p id="spar0020" class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">Aunque se encuentran algunas variables relacionadas con la muerte operatoria&#44; el modelo descrito no es capaz de predecir la muerte operatoria&#46; Por tanto&#44; la aplicabilidad a la toma de decisiones individualizadas es de escasa utilidad</p>"
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        "resumen" => "<span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Objective</span><p id="spar0025" class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">To evaluate the reliability of a logistic regression model to predict individual risk of death related to lung cancer resection</p> <span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Method</span><p id="spar0030" class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">A study of 515 consecutive patients undergoing anatomical pulmonary resection &#40;lobectomy or pulmonectomy&#41; for lung cancer between January 1994 and December 2001&#46; Dependent variable&#58; death in or out of hospital within 30 days of surgery&#46; Continuous independent variables&#58; age&#44; body mass index&#44; and percent of predicted postoperative FEV1&#46; Binary independent variables&#58; ischemic heart disease&#44; diabetes mellitus&#44; preoperative arrhythmia&#44; induction chemotherapy&#44; type of resection &#40;lobectomy or pneumonectomy&#41;&#44; chest wall resection&#44; tumor extension &#40;localized or extended tumor&#41; and perioperative blood transfusion&#46; All data were gathered prospectively&#46; A univariate analysis was performed using contingency tables for binary variables and analysis of variance for continuous ones&#59; stepwise logistic regression analysis was then performed and the likelihood of death for each individual was calculated&#46; A receiver operating characteristic &#40;ROC&#41; curve was constructed with the data&#44; using surgical death as the state variable</p> <span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Results</span><p id="spar0035" class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">The following variables were found to be independently related to death in the univariate analysis&#58; age &#40;p &#60; 0&#46;001&#44; odds ratio 1&#46;11&#41;&#59; tumor extension &#40;p<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#61;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>0&#46;002&#59; OR 3&#46;47&#41; and perioperative transfusion &#40;p<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#61;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>0&#46;004&#59; OR 3&#46;87&#41;&#46; The area under the ROC curve was 0&#46;77&#44; attributable to high specificity given that none of the complications could have been predicted</p> <span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Conclusion</span><p id="spar0040" class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">Although some variables are related to surgical death&#44; the described model is not able to give a prediction&#46; Therefore&#44; the model is of little use for application in making decisions about individual cases</p>"
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Journal Information
Vol. 39. Issue 6.
Pages 249-252 (June 2003)
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Vol. 39. Issue 6.
Pages 249-252 (June 2003)
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Aplicabilidad de un modelo predictivo de muerte por resección de cáncer de pulmón a la toma de decisiones individualizadas
A model to predict death after lung cancer resection: applicability to individual cases
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G. Varela
Corresponding author
gvs@usal.es

Correspondencia: Sección de Cirugía Torácica. Hospital Universitario de Salamanca. P.° San Vicente, 58. 37007 Salamanca. España
, M.F. Jiménez, N. Novoa
Sección de Cirugía Torácica. Hospital Universitario de Salamanca. Salamanca. España
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Article information
Objetivo

Evaluar la fiabilidad de un modelo de regresión logística para predecir el riesgo individual de muerte por resección de cáncer pulmonar (CP)

Método

Estudio de 515 casos consecutivos sometidos a resección pulmonar anatómica (lobectomía o neumonectomía) por CP entre enero de 1994 y diciembre de 2001. La variable dependiente fue la mortalidad hospitalaria o extrahospitalaria en los 30 días siguientes a la intervención; las variables independientes continuas: la edad, el índice de masa corporal y el volumen espiratorio forzado en el primer segundo, en porcentaje del teórico (FEV1ppo), y las variables independientes binarias: cardiopatía isquémica, diabetes mellitus, arritmia preoperatoria, quimioterapia de inducción, tipo de resección realizada (lobectomía o neumonectomía), resección de pared torácica, extensión tumoral (tumor localizado o extendido) y transfusión sanguínea perioperatoria. Todas las variables han sido recogidas de forma prospectiva. Se ha realizado un análisis univariante utilizando tablas de contingencia para las variables binarias y ANOVA para las continuas; posteriormente, se ha efectuado un análisis de regresión logística por pasos hacia atrás y se ha calculado la probabilidad de muerte para cada caso individual. Con este valor se ha construido una curva ROC utilizando como variable de estado la aparición de muerte operatoria

Resultados

En el análisis multivariante, las siguientes variables se han encontrado relacionadas de forma independiente con la mortalidad: edad (p < 0,001; odds ratio [OR]=1,11), extensión tumoral (p=0,002; OR=3,47) y transfusión perioperatoria (p=0,004; OR=3,87). El área bajo la curva ROC es de 0,77, pero esto es debido a una especificidad elevada, ya que ningún caso de complicación pudo ser predicho

Conclusion

Aunque se encuentran algunas variables relacionadas con la muerte operatoria, el modelo descrito no es capaz de predecir la muerte operatoria. Por tanto, la aplicabilidad a la toma de decisiones individualizadas es de escasa utilidad

Palabras clave:
Resección pulmonar
Mortalidad operatoria
Predicción del riesgo quirúrgico
Objective

To evaluate the reliability of a logistic regression model to predict individual risk of death related to lung cancer resection

Method

A study of 515 consecutive patients undergoing anatomical pulmonary resection (lobectomy or pulmonectomy) for lung cancer between January 1994 and December 2001. Dependent variable: death in or out of hospital within 30 days of surgery. Continuous independent variables: age, body mass index, and percent of predicted postoperative FEV1. Binary independent variables: ischemic heart disease, diabetes mellitus, preoperative arrhythmia, induction chemotherapy, type of resection (lobectomy or pneumonectomy), chest wall resection, tumor extension (localized or extended tumor) and perioperative blood transfusion. All data were gathered prospectively. A univariate analysis was performed using contingency tables for binary variables and analysis of variance for continuous ones; stepwise logistic regression analysis was then performed and the likelihood of death for each individual was calculated. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was constructed with the data, using surgical death as the state variable

Results

The following variables were found to be independently related to death in the univariate analysis: age (p < 0.001, odds ratio 1.11); tumor extension (p=0.002; OR 3.47) and perioperative transfusion (p=0.004; OR 3.87). The area under the ROC curve was 0.77, attributable to high specificity given that none of the complications could have been predicted

Conclusion

Although some variables are related to surgical death, the described model is not able to give a prediction. Therefore, the model is of little use for application in making decisions about individual cases

Key words:
Lung resection
Operative mortality
Surgical risk prediction
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Copyright © 2003. Sociedad Española de Neumología y Cirugía Torácica
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